{
  "schema": "policy/1",
  "policy_id": "019a5c00-2222-7aaa-8bbb-ccccdddd0007",
  "question_id": "q_534a3508f2d81f8c35d11ba5cde4fcc3",
  "question_name": "refund_fraud",
  "model_served": "jev-1.14.0",
  "type": "noul",
  "version": 7,
  "created_at": "2026-11-08T03:00:14Z",
  "fit_id": "019a5c00-1111-7aaa-8bbb-ccccdddd0001",
  "calibration": { "method": "platt", "a": -0.71, "b": 0.42 },
  "rules": [
    { "id": "accept", "action": "ACCEPT", "scalar": "p", "op": "lt", "threshold": 0.3 },
    { "id": "block", "action": "BLOCK", "scalar": "p", "op": "ge", "threshold": 0.85 }
  ],
  "fallback_action": "ESCALATE",
  "audit_fraction": 0.01,
  "target": {
    "kind": "risk",
    "metric": "false_pass",
    "alpha": 0.02,
    "delta": 0.05,
    "max_escalation": 0.15
  },
  "guarantee": {
    "status": "certified",
    "method": "ltt-binomial/1",
    "statement": "With 95% confidence over the tuning data, at most 2% of ACCEPTed refund requests are fraudulent, for future traffic like the tuning window.",
    "alpha": 0.02,
    "delta": 0.05,
    "assumptions": [
      "Future traffic is exchangeable with the tuning window (no drift since 2026-07-11).",
      "Only decisions older than the 120-day label horizon were used.",
      "A refund with no chargeback after 120 days counts as not fraudulent (default-by-rule)."
    ],
    "n": { "accept": 7180 },
    "window": { "from": "2026-04-12T00:00:00Z", "to": "2026-07-11T00:00:00Z", "n": 25000 }
  },
  "metrics": {
    "tune": {
      "n": 10000,
      "automated": 0.857,
      "escalated": 0.143,
      "rules": {
        "accept": { "fired": 7180, "wrong": 108, "unlabeled": 0, "rate": 0.015, "ci95": [0.0124, 0.0181] },
        "block": { "fired": 1390, "wrong": 22, "unlabeled": 0, "rate": 0.0158, "ci95": [0.0099, 0.0239] }
      },
      "expected_cost_per_1000": null
    },
    "eval": {
      "n": 5000,
      "automated": 0.856,
      "escalated": 0.144,
      "rules": {
        "accept": { "fired": 3600, "wrong": 55, "unlabeled": 0, "rate": 0.0153, "ci95": [0.0115, 0.0198] },
        "block": { "fired": 680, "wrong": 11, "unlabeled": 0, "rate": 0.0162, "ci95": [0.0081, 0.0288] }
      },
      "expected_cost_per_1000": null
    }
  },
  "fingerprint": "sha256:32d8f6efeee249f92884e5bf3067e1b38df4ea9ec5bc1f4c088c97220bb0e94c"
}